Major Climate Study's GDP Loss Projections Found to Rely on Faulty Data

A 2024 climate study widely cited in media and policy circles, which projected up to $38 trillion in global climate damages by 2050, has been found to rely on flawed data, casting doubt on its conclusions. The study, which claimed global GDP could be 62% lower by 2100 due to climate change, was skewed by inaccurate GDP figures from Uzbekistan.
When Uzbekistan’s data was removed from the dataset, the projected GDP losses dropped significantly—falling to 23% by 2100. The error has raised concerns about the reliability of climate impact models and their influence on policy decisions.
The study’s findings were referenced in media coverage and even cited in policy discussions, despite later corrections. Researchers have emphasized the need for rigorous data verification to avoid such discrepancies in future climate assessments.

Published: 8/10/2025