China's Falling Birth Rate Raises Economic Concerns

China’s declining birth rate has sparked concerns about the nation’s economic future, as its population continues to shrink and age. Despite ending its one-child policy in 2016, China’s birth rate remains below replacement levels, with 7.4 births per 1,000 people in 2024. This trend has raised questions about the sustainability of China’s economic growth, particularly as its workforce declines and the number of elderly reliant on social support systems increases.
Experts warn that China’s shrinking population could significantly impact its economic trajectory. By 2050, China’s output growth could fall below 2%, according to Fortune. Anthony Kim, a research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, notes that China’s demographic challenges are a long-term consequence of its one-child policy. He suggests that automation and artificial intelligence could help mitigate labor shortages, but warns that the current trend poses significant risks to the economy.
Gordon Chang, a distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, argues that China’s population collapse will “obviously affect the economy” and could make the nation more dangerous on the global stage. Meanwhile, Michael Pillsbury, a leading expert on China, expresses skepticism about demographic projections, warning that they are often used to downplay China’s potential threat to global stability.
Despite these concerns, Michael Cunningham, another Heritage Foundation fellow, cautions against writing China off. He highlights China’s position at the forefront of emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, and suggests that the nation could adapt to its demographic challenges in unexpected ways.
As China grapples with its shrinking population, the implications for its economy, global influence, and security remain uncertain. While AI and automation offer potential solutions, the long-term consequences of China’s demographic shifts will likely shape its role as a global superpower.

Published: 8/5/2025