China Prepares for Prolonged Tariff Conflict with U.S.

As tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, internal discussions within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reveal a willingness to endure significant economic strain for a prolonged conflict. Cai Qi, a close ally of President Xi Jinping, has suggested that the Chinese populace must accept hardships comparable to the 1959-1961 Great Famine, which resulted in an estimated 40 million deaths. Chinese dissident Yuan Hongbing reported that Xi has instructed officials to study Mao Zedong’s 1938 lecture, "On Protracted War," advocating for a prolonged struggle against U.S. tariffs. This strategy includes selective tariff reductions on American goods to alleviate domestic pressure while maintaining a confrontational stance. Cai Qi referenced the Great Famine as a "three years of natural disasters," downplaying the CCP's role in the catastrophe. His history of tough policies, including the eviction of migrant workers in Beijing, highlights a pragmatic approach to managing dissent. Yuan warns that the CCP’s strategy may backfire, as the Chinese people are now more informed and less susceptible to manipulation than in the past. The risks of this prolonged conflict are significant, with potential consequences for both the economy and social stability.

Published: 5/29/2025