New Study Finds No Long-Term Decline In Arctic Sea Ice Extent Since 2007

A recent study published in Stern (2025) has revealed that Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has remained stable since 2007, with no long-term decline. This contradicts earlier predictions, such as former Vice President Al Gore’s claim in 2007 that summer Arctic sea ice would vanish within five to seven years.
The study analyzed satellite data from 1979 to 2024 and found that while SIE declined linearly before 2007, it has fluctuated without a clear trend since then. The largest year-to-year drop in SIE occurred in 2007, marking a turning point after which the trend stabilized.
These findings challenge the narrative of a continuous decline in Arctic sea ice and suggest that natural variability and other factors may be influencing current ice conditions. The study’s conclusions also raise questions about the accuracy of climate models predicting rapid ice loss and its implications for global warming projections.
This research contributes to ongoing debates about the extent of human influence on Arctic ice and the need for further study to understand the region’s complex dynamics.

Published: 8/13/2025