China Poised to Beat the U.S. Back to the Moon

Recent milestones in China's space program suggest the nation is on track to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030, potentially surpassing the United States in this new era of lunar exploration. China's Lanyue lunar lander successfully completed tests simulating lunar gravity, while the Long March-10 rocket achieved a successful static fire test, marking significant progress in its lunar ambitions. Dean Cheng, a leading expert on China's space policy, highlights the implications of these developments. "The Lanyue lander is significant because it's part of the usual Chinese 'crawl-walk-run' approach to major space projects," Cheng explains. "The Chinese lunar program is pushing ahead, and it seems quite likely that they will land on the Moon before NASA can return with the Artemis Program." Cheng warns that China's success in lunar exploration could have profound geopolitical consequences. "The optics of 'the passing of the American age' would be evident," he says. "China can do 'big' things, and the United States cannot. This would reinforce the idea that political authoritarianism is more likely to lead to modernization and advancement." While the U.S. has technological advantages, including reusable space architectures, its inconsistent programmatic direction and lack of stability compared to China's systematic approach could hinder its progress. Cheng advises the Trump administration to commit to a long-term space strategy, mobilize congressional and public support, and provide incentives for innovation to better compete with China. As China advances its lunar program, the geopolitical and technological implications for the U.S. and its allies remain significant. The race to the Moon is not just about who gets there first but also about establishing a dominant presence in cis-lunar space, with China already signaling its intent to build infrastructure and influence standards in the region.

Published: 8/18/2025